Dirt Road Realty News

Rhinebeck Real Estate Home Affordable Modification Program

Fri, 27 Jan 2012 09:00:00 EST

Obama administration expands foreclosure prevention program

Published January 27,2012
By Les Christie CNN Money Reporter

The Obama administration is taking another swing at improving its main foreclosure prevention program.

The administration said it was expanding eligibility for its Home Affordable Modification Program, known as HAMP, to borrowers with higher debt loads and tripling the incentives it pays banks that reduce principal on loans.

The administration also said it would offer incentives to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to reduce principal on loans. Previously, the government had only offered incentives to private lenders and banks. The program was also extended to December 2013. It was initially set to expire at the end of this year.

The changes were announced in a joint press conference held by Housing and Urban Development Secretary Shaun Donovan, Assistant Treasury Secretary Tim Massad, and White House National Economic Council Director Gene Sperling on Friday afternoon.

Originally designed to help some 4 million mortgage borrowers when it was first introduced in February, 2009, HAMP has helped fewer than 1 million homeowners.

Has Obama's housing policy failed?

With these changes, HAMP is turning into an "all of the above strategy to help responsible homeowners lower their costs and stay in their homes," said Gene Sperling, the Director of the National Economic Council, who also took part in the press conference.

Here's a rundown of the new changes:

•Expansion of eligibility: HAMP was designed to bring the debt ratio of mortgage borrowers down to 31% of their incomes. Those whose mortgage payments were already below that level had been ineligible for a modification. They may qualify now. The new guidelines will allow for a more flexible approach that takes other debt into account when calculating debt–to–income ratios.

•Extension of eligibility to owners of rentals properties: The old HAMP rules applied solely to owner–occupied homes but now those who own rental properties may also qualify for a HAMP modification.

•Triple balance–reduction incentives: The new HAMP will pay between 18 cents and 63 cents for every dollar that lenders take off the mortgage principal, up from between 6 cents and 21 cents.

•Pay Fannie and Freddie the same incentives: Currently, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac do not offer principal reduction plans as part of their HAMP modifications. To encourage this assistance, Treasury said it will pay the same principal reduction incentives to Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac if they allow servicers to forgive principal in conjunction with a HAMP modification.

While the new changes could greatly expand the number of homeowners that receive help from HAMP, it could invite controversy. Subsidizing real estate investors with taxpayer money in a time of rising rents doesn't makes much sense to Anthony Sanders, a real estate professor at George Mason University, for example.

Yet, HUD Secretary Shaun Donovan said that it doesn't matter whether the house next door to you is occupied by a tenant or an owner.

"If the house goes vacant, the value of your house goes down $5,000 or $10,000 that day," he said. "These are major problems for homeowners."

Following the press conference, the Federal Housing Finance Agency, which oversees Fannie and Freddie, issued a statement that said it would consider the changes to the HAMP program.

However, it noted that an analysis it recently conducted found "that principal forgiveness did not provide benefits that were greater than principal forbearance," signaling that the housing authority may not support reducing the principal on loans as a way to help homeowners.

No new funds need be allocated for HAMP's expansion. Since less than $10 billion of the $29 billion set aside for the program has been spent so far, said Timothy Massad, Assistant Secretary for Financial Stability at the Treasury Department. The administration would not hazard a guess at how many more borrowers the expanded program would help.

The changes in HAMP do not take effect until the end of April, but a Treasury spokeswoman said any struggling homeowners should reach out and seek foreclosure prevention counseling immediately. That way, they can learn their options, which could include trying to hold on until the new HAMP is ready.

For complete article –Click

Harvey Brown, Principal Broker

Rhinebeck, New York, 12572
845-876-3502 or 212-228-6705
hbrown@dirtroadrealty.com

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Rhinebeck Real Estate News Homes Have Less Square Footage

Wed, 18 Jan 2012 09:00:00 EST

The 'New American Home' Continues Shrinking

Published January 18,2012
By Dawn Wotapka WSJ Real Estate Reporter

The "New American Home" is shrinking.

Every year at its convention, the National Association of Home Builders highlights the New American Home, a high–end model designed and built to capture emerging trends in residential building and the shifting lifestyles of Americans.

This year's showpiece, which measures 4,181 square feet and is one of the smallest in the popular program's 29–year history, shows that the love affair with McMansions seems to be waning.

Indeed, last year's featured home sprawled over 6,800 square feet. The nation's average home size, which peaked just above 2,500 square feet in 2007, is expected to shrink to 2,152 square feet by 2015.

Of course, even the downsized New American Home remains above average. It was built in an infill Orlando location within walking distance of shops and restaurants. Many Americans, builders have learned, are fed up with pricey gas and lengthy commutes.

The showpiece, described as a modern take on the classic "boxes" of the 1960s and '70s, has two bedrooms, and features additional rooms that could house parents or boomerang kids —those moving back home because of the weak economy. It also boasts energy–efficient features such solar panels to run the HVAC system and to heat hot water.

This year's New American Home will be displayed between Feb. 8 and 11, when thousands of builders and suppliers head to the International Builders' Show, the nation's largest gathering of such professionals. (The NAHB, the builders' main trade group, declined to give attendance projections.) The home is usually the site of several soirees and receives lots of press. The caterer might want to stock extra bubbly — industry watchers say the hard–hit sector has finally struck the long–awaited bottom.

For complete article –Click

Harvey Brown , Principal Broker

Rhinebeck, New York, 12572
845-876-3502 or 212-228-6705
hbrown@dirtroadrealty.com

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Rhinebeck Real Estate 2012 Real Estate Predictions

Fri, 06 Jan 2012 09:00:00 EST

Real Estate Predictions 2012

Published Thursday December 1, 2011
By Diana Olick CNBC Real Estate Reporter

1. Home prices will fall another 5 percent through Q2 before bottoming toward year's end.

Prices are already on a downward trajectory, as foreclosure inventories rise. Banks/mortgage servicers are finally working through a huge backlog of delinquent loans, and as those distressed properties come to market, they will consequently lower home prices. With lower conforming–loan levels, as well as a tight lending environment and the possibility of rising mortgage rates, prices will bottom out in the fall.

2. Foreclosure inventories will rise while new delinquencies remain elevated.

Inventories will continue to rise, as around three million distressed properties progress to final bank repossession. Banks will likely ramp up the process following the usual holiday slowdown, especially given positive rulings on the MERS front (the auto–uber recorder for so many loans), and judicial states lifting their moratoria. Foreclosures will come quickly through the winter and spring months then abate toward year's end. The downward pressure on overall home prices will put more borrowers underwater and in turn keep delinquencies elevated, although not much higher than now.

3. Rents will rise, as will rental occupancy rates.

Until the employment market really starts cooking, young employees and potential first–time home buyers will remain on the sidelines, waiting for home prices to bottom. That means continued high demand for rental apartments, especially in higher–priced markets. The big question is: When do rents get too high vs. the cost of home ownership and push people back to buying?

4. Housing starts to be a tale of two markets.

Single–family home building will struggle to stay above a 600,000–unit annualized pace, as builders continue to compete with foreclosed properties. Slight improvement in demand will keep them going, but not by much. Meanwhile, the minimal supply of multi–family apartment buildings will keep investors pouring money into new construction. Builders will respond with increased multi–family starts, not just in trophy markets, but also mid–sized ones where inventories are lower.

5. Government will stay out of housing.

With a presidential election in its sights, the Obama administration isn't going to take any drastic measures that might upset voters. While housing continues to be a thorn in its political side, calls for a massive principal reduction program or a real plan to take apart Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are far too controversial. We will see only small moves, like the recent refinance plan. Oh, and as for that settlement with the big banks and the state attorneys general? If it happens, and at this point that's a big if, it will likely not include some of the key states — New York, Massachusetts and California — and also likely lack real teeth.

For complete article –Click

Rhinebeck Real Estate Homes for Sale Supply and Demand

Thu, 05 Jan 2012 09:00:00 EST

Housing’s Huge Supply and Demand Imbalance

Published Tuesday, January 3, 2012
By Diana Olick CNBC Real Estate Reporter

"Pent–up demand." That is the rallying cry of the housing bulls, as they forecast the great recovery of 2012. So many potential buyers are doubled up with family, stuck in undesirable rentals or just plain afraid to put their current home on the market, but that's about to change, say these optimistic prognosticators.

"Inventories [of unsold homes] have been coming down, showing very healthy declines," Ivy Zelman, CEO of Zelman and Associates told the Wall Street Journal. And Zelman is new to the bull ring, as she is famous for predicting the housing bubble in the first place.

Pent–up demand exists, no question, but it has nowhere to go right now for the vast majority of organic home buyers. When I say organic, I'm excluding investors from the mix, because that demand is high and building up cash like mad. I mean regular lower to upper middle–class Americans still struggling in today's rough economy.

"There are relatively few borrowers that can qualify for a mortgage given today's tight lending standards," says Laurie Goodman, Senior Managing Director at Amherst Securities. "Aside from FHA and VA mortgage, you need 20 percent down, and that's very, very difficult for most borrowers."

Goodman, one of the best number crunchers I've come across in this field, claims there is far more distress in the housing market than some of the leading mortgage data providers portray. She counts eight to ten million more foreclosures over the next six years, because she adds borrowers currently in mortgage modifications.

"That includes borrowers who have never missed a payment before, but are deeply underwater and are apt to default because borrowers just like them are defaulting on a regular basis," Goodman contends.

She notes that household formation has been running very low of late, just 5–800,000 a year. A normal level is 1.1 to 1.2 million units a year.

"Even if we go back to 1.2 million units a year, and even if 50 percent of those are home buyers, which I think is a very, very high number [the rest being renters], that won't be sufficient to clean up the huge overhang of supply we're going to have over the next four to six years," she calculates.

Why is 50 percent high? She calculates on:

"The homeownership rate for the U.S. as a whole is 66 percent. If you take out the borrowers who haven't made a mortgage payment in a year it is 62 percent. The Center for Joint Studies at Harvard estimates that out of the 1.2 million units per annum household formation over the next decade, 70 percent will be minorities, who have lower home ownership rates. In this context, 50 percent seems generous."

Her conclusion, and the one I've been promoting for over a year now, is that the only way to re–balance supply and demand is to get investors into the market in force to buy up these properties and meet the huge rental the demand that will continue for several years. As we reported last week, hedge funds are busy working on deals, but government needs to help. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are currently sitting on a huge supply of foreclosed properties and facing even more down the pike.

The Federal Housing Finance Agency (Fannie and Freddie's conservator), along with the U.S. Treasury Department, need to get moving on their so–far inchoate plan to sell these REOs in bulk to investors, and in doing so, make sure said investors are provided with financial incentives to make it worth their while. As Goodman notes, these investors will be buying single family homes, not multi–family apartment buildings (which have identical units), so they need to build out property management organizations to handle repairs, manage tenants and keep the properties rented.

"I fully expect that they will end up implementing something at some point this year," adds Goodman, "because there is simply no choice."

For complete article –Click

Rhinebeck NY Real Estate Homes Sold in Rhinebeck in the Year 2011

Wed, 04 Jan 2012 09:00:00 EST

The Source for Rhinebeck real estate homes sold in Rhinebeck NY is the Mid–Hudson Multiple Listing Service Inc (MHMLS). These figures for single family detached homes sold in Rhinebeck NY do not represent the total Rhinebeck NY real estate sales in Dutchess County. These figures for homes sold in Rhinebeck NY reflect the sales activity of the MHMLS, which comprises the largest sales volume sampling. .

I would like to briefly explain the MHMLS.

The real estate brokers in the MHMLS have agreed to share their listings– information on properties features. All the homes on the MHMLS are pooled together in one listing.

What does that mean to the home buyer? A Buyer’s agency as Dirt Road Realty, a real estate agency committed exclusively to the home buyer, the home buyer can search for their home in one Rhinebeck Real Estate listing –in one place not searching multiple agencies for the same home.

72 Rhinebeck Homes Sold
During the Year of 2011

Number of Homes Sold	Price Points	Percent of Number of Homes
13	$57,900 - $199,999	18%
33	$200,000 - $399,999	46%
21	$400,0000 - $599,999	29%
1	$600,000 - $799,999	02%
3	$800,000 - $1,000,000	04%
1	$1,000,000 Plus	01%

In the Rhinebeck NY real estate market,there were a total of 72 homes sold in Rhinebeck NY in the year 2011. The greatest number of homes sold in the Rhinebeck NY real estate market were in the price range of $200,000 - $399,999. There were 33 homes sold in the Rhinebeck NY real estate market in the year of 2011. This reprents 46 percent of the homes sold in Rhinebeck NY real estate for the year 2011.

The next grouping in decending order in the Rhinebeck NY real estate were homes that sold in rhinebeck between $400,000 - $599,999. There were 21 homes in the Rhinebeck NY real estate market. This reprents 29 percent of the homes sold in Rhinebeck NY real estate for the year 2011.

The next grouping in decending order in the Rhinebeck NY real estate were homes that sold in rhinebeck between $57,900 - $199,999. There were 13 homes in the Rhinebeck NY real estate market. This represents 18 percent

In the Rhinebeck NY real estate market,there were a total of 5 homes sold in Rhinebeck NY above $600,000. This price point of homes that sold in the Rhinebeck real estate market represented 7 per cent of all the homes sold in the Rhinebeck NY real estate market in the year of 2011.

Harvey Brown,ABR, Principal Broker

Rhinebeck, New York, 12572
845-876-3502 or 212-228-6705
hbrown@dirtroadrealty.com

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Rhinebeck NY Real Estate Homes Sold in Rhinebeck December 2011

Mon, 02 Jan 2012 09:00:00 EST

I would like to briefly explain the MHMLS.

The real estate brokers in the MHMLS have agreed to share their listings– information on properties features. All the homes on the MHMLS are pooled together in one listing.

9 Rhinebeck Homes Sold
During the Month of December 2011

Orginal Listed Price	Sale Price	Percent Price Reduction	Listing Month & Year
$149,000	$105,000	30%	May 2011
$239,000	$143,000	40%	Oct. 2009
$269,900	$250,000	07%	May 2011
$429,000	$254,000	41%	July 2011
$289,000	$260,000	10%	Oct. 2011
$319,900	$282,000	12%	August 2011
$349,000	$307,500	12%	May 2011
$499,000	$315,000	37%	June 2010
$719,000	$442,000	39%	May 2009

A familiar and important Take Home Message – Homes Sold in Rhinebeck NY on the Rhinebeck real estate market the longest homes on the market tend to have the greatest percentage price reduction. The home buyer should ask the real estate broker how long the home has been on the Rhinebeck real estate market– the total time. Working with Dirt Road Realty a real estate agency committed exclusively to the home buyer, the home buyer will appreciate its benefits.

3 of the 9 homes that sold in Rhinebeck NY in the month of December 2011 were listed in the Rhinebeck real estate market in 2009 and 2010. These 3 homes which sold in Rhinebeck NY had the higher percentage of price reductions 37%,39% and 40%. Speaking directly to the premise – Homes Sold in Rhinebeck NY on the Rhinebeck real estate market the longest homes on the market tend to have the greatest percentage price reduction.

However a new caveat has been brought into the Rhinebeck real estate market, a calculated plan for pricing –list a home with a "lets see what price we can get price" with the plan to reduce the price 10% each month until the home gets sold. This appears to be the scenario for one home sold in Rhinebeck NY listed in July 2011 in the Rhinebeck real estate market with a price reduction of 41% when it sold in December 2011.

Homes sold in Rhinebeck during the month of December continue to tell the story that is homes above $500,000 are being hard hit in this Rhinebeck real estate market. Dana Olick of CNBC wrote
Higher-End Housing Hits a Wall

Lastly a repeat of November,
Because when I say "high–end" I'm not talking multi–million dollar homes, I'm talking about homes over $500,000, which are move–up homes. If there's no move–up market, then there can be no real recovery because all the action is taking place in the distressed market, which then artificially pulls down the national home price numbers and scares the rest of the market away.

No move–up market also means those in higher priced homes who need to sell can't, and that could push up delinquencies on jumbo and even higher–priced conforming loans. Think of all the baby boomers who need to get out of big suburban family homes they can no longer afford. Suffice it to say, we need all segments of the housing market pushing forward in order to get the full market back to health.

The sale price for all 9 homes sold in Rhinebeck NY in the month of December 2011 were below $500,000 where these higher priced homes in the Rhinebeck real estate market continue to be the hardest hit.

Harvey Brown,ABR, Principal Broker

Rhinebeck, New York, 12572
845-876-3502 or 212-228-6705
hbrown@dirtroadrealty.com

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Rhinebeck Real Estate Hope in the Housing Market

Thu, 29 Dec 2011 09:00:00 EST

Housing's New Hope

Published Thursday, December 29,2011
By Diana Olick CNBC Real Estate Reporter

I'm not sure if it's that usual New Year's Eve optimism evoked by the generic philosophy that the grass is always greener on the other side of the calendar year, or perhaps the emotional need to dig ourselves out of what has surely been one of the more lugubrious periods in the U.S. economy, but there is some hope in housing.

A few positive readings in home sales and housing starts recently, topped off by today's 7.4 percent monthly jump in contracts to buy existing homes, are fueling what I dare say is a spark, albeit not a fire. They are also managing to trump what was a particularly opposing reading in home prices from the number crunchers at S&P/Case–Shiller this week.

Don't worry, I'm not going to dump a bunch of coal on the numbers and claim they're all spurious in some way; I'm all prepared to be munificent, while chary (did I mention my new year's resolution is to improve my family's vocabulary, as well as banish "like" from my kids' lexicon.) I will note that even the Realtors, while touting affordability and pent–up demand, note that many of these new signed contracts are the result of delayed transactions.

"Contract failures have been running unusually high," notes National Association of Realtors chief economist Lawrence Yun. "Some of the increase in pending home sales appears to be from buyers recommitting after an initial contract ran into problems, often with the mortgage," he said.

Then there is a big story in the Wall Street Journal today of hedge funds putting their money back in housing, suggesting that while the numbers aren't all there for a big win, these funds are usually ahead of big market shifts, so the housing surge must be on its way. I've spoken to some of these hedge fund types as well, and they seem to be playing on the surging rental market for now, getting the bargains but not expecting any big "flipping" returns any time soon.

"Bottom line, whether due to even lower prices, historically low mortgage rates, falling inventory and a better tone to the labor market or a combination of all, the housing market is showing signs of stabilizing," says Peter Boockvar at Miller Tabak. "I say stabilize instead of bottom, as its too early to make that claim just yet with still a huge amount of foreclosures that hasn't worked its way through the judicial system and prices that haven't likely stopped going down as a result."

Some are predicting that foreclosures will push home prices down another five to ten percent before hitting a true bottom. In addition, those rock–bottom mortgage rates that everyone is touting this week may be heading up, as the conservator of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac today directed the two mortgage behemoths to inform servicers that guarantee fees would rise ten basis points next week. That, if you recall, is to pay for the temporary extension of the payroll tax cut. Yep, that money heads to the U.S. Treasury, not to the troubled balance sheets of Fannie and Freddie. This accused nostrum will likely raise rates a tad, but rates are still close to historical lows. And we should remember that.

It's all relative. Are things getting a bit better? Probably.

I heard (or read…can't remember) someone today say that housing has gone from a negative to a nothing for the U.S. economy. So when we tout and rave about today's pending home sales numbers, we mustn't forget where we've been:

"It’s not going to keep 2011 from being the worst on record for new home sales, for single family permits and single family housing starts. Next year is going to be better, but that’s not saying much because this has been the worst year, probably since 1945," said IHS Global Insight's Patrick Newport. In other words, housing ain't exactly fecund, but it's at least inching off life support.
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Rhinebeck Real Estate Housing Imperils Job Gains

Wed, 28 Dec 2011 09:00:00 EST

Housing Imperils Job Gains
Price Slump Keeps Workers Who Want to Relocate Tethered to Their Homes

Published Thursday, December 28, 2011
By NICK TIMIRAOS and BEN CASSELMAN WSJ Real Estate Reporter

The prolonged U.S. housing bust is threatening to claim yet another victim: the nascent recovery in the labor market.

New data released Tuesday showed just how bad the housing market remains. Home prices in 20 major metropolitan areas fell 3.4% in October from the previous year, according to the S&P/Case–Shiller Home Price Index. It was the 13th consecutive year–to–year decline.

The job market, by contrast, has finally been showing signs of improvement. The unemployment rate fell to 8.6% in November, the lowest level in more than 2½ years, and recent weekly reports have suggested the trend continued in December. Consumers also remained surprisingly upbeat, according to a report released Tuesday. The Conference Board, a private research group, said its index of consumer confidence jumped in December to its highest level since April.

But now some economists fear the continued slump in housing could short–circuit the recovery in jobs by making it harder for Americans to relocate to find work.

In theory, as the economy improves, people tend to relocate from places where jobs are scarce to areas where companies are hiring. In the current cycle, that means families should be leaving California and Nevada and heading to Nebraska and Texas. Workers with particular skills, such as machinists, accountants or computer programmers, should move to places where those skills are in demand. That would shrink the big pools of unemployed workers in hard–hit areas and help resolve shortages of skilled workers that have held companies back from expanding.

While some relocation continues, economists believe mobility overall has been muted in part because of the housing bust. Low home values have made it much harder for Americans to move because selling a home is so difficult. That is especially true for the 10.7 million Americans—or 22% of homeowners with a mortgage—who owed more than their homes were worth as of the end of September, according to figures from real–estate firm CoreLogic. In hard–hit markets such as Phoenix and Las Vegas, the share of such "underwater" mortgages is much higher, at about 52% and 61%, respectively.

Borrowers who are underwater are about 30% less likely to move than those who rent or have equity in their homes, according to a study co–authored by Joseph Gyourko, a professor of real–estate finance at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School.

Economists have generally found that the housing slump has had only a minor effect on the job market until now. That's likely because with unemployment so high across the country, there are generally plenty of unemployed workers already nearby to fill any available jobs.

But that could change as the labor market springs back to life. There are some parts of the country "that people should be thinking of moving to, but they're locked into their current housing situation," said Kenneth Rosen, a housing economist at the University of California, Berkeley. "This becomes a bigger problem as the recovery starts to gain some traction. It's a big issue, bigger than people think."

The weak real–estate market doesn't just discourage unemployed workers from moving to find work. It also makes people who do have jobs less likely to relocate for a promotion or a better opportunity in another city, and therefore less likely to open up jobs in the cities they leave behind.

Randy Badia, an engineer for an auto maker, is ready to apply for a promotion to his firm's Michigan headquarters, but he can't easily relocate because he owes more than his Phoenix home is worth.

A construction worker building a home this year in Las Vegas, a hard–hit market where about 61% of mortgages are underwater.

"I'd like to go back and attack my career aspirations, but being underwater, is it feasible at this point or am I stuck here?" said Mr. Badia, 35 years old, who six months ago passed up a job posting. He owes about $100,000 more than the house he bought six years ago is now worth. "If I didn't have the house, I'd be gone, moving on with my career," he said.

Mr. Badia has considered a short sale, where his lender would have to agree to sell the house for less than what he owes. But that isn't guaranteed to wipe out the $70,000 second mortgage he has on the property. He said he has nearly ruled out renting out the house because he doesn't want to be a landlord from 2,000 miles away.

"A lot of people here are simply staying put," said Greg Markov, the Phoenix real–estate agent advising Mr. Badia. Underwater mortgages "have become a big deterrent to changing jobs."

The issue is increasingly a problem for employers as they ramp up hiring. The extended downturn has made it harder to get both job candidates and existing employees to relocate, said David Barlow, senior vice president and senior consultant at moving company Sirva Inc.

"Without a doubt, it is magnitudes more difficult to get folks to move," Mr. Barlow said. A job candidate's housing and equity situation "is one of the first questions that comes up" in a relocation discussion, he said.

In response, some companies are offering increased benefits, which cover the cost of selling a house for less than the purchase price, according to a survey by Weichert Relocation Resources Inc. But as the cost of such benefits rise, companies are also being more selective. Expensive moving costs more often may "lead companies to consider Candidate B or Candidate C," Mr. Barlow said.

For complete article –Click

Rhinebeck Real Estate Report Shows Fresh Signs That Housing Is Improving

Thu, 22 Dec 2011 09:00:00 EST

Housing Slump Was Deeper

Published December 22 2011
By NICK TIMIRAOS and CONOR DOUGHERTY WSJ Real Estate Reporter

The housing slump was deeper than initially estimated, but new data indicate that the worst of the downturn may have passed.

The National Association of Realtors said Wednesday it over–estimated home sales by 14.3% between 2007 and 2010, meaning that 2.9 million fewer homes sold during those years than thought earlier.

The trade group, which tracks previously owned homes, said the over–counting was due to shifts in the housing market that weren't detected until this year.

But the report also provided fresh signs that housing is improving. Home sales in November rose 4% from October's levels to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.42 million, the second–highest level of the year.

At the current rate, sales are on track to exceed last year's depressed level of 4.19 million. While that would be an improvement, sales remain lower than at any time since the late 1990s and are well below the annual level of 5 million units seen before the housing boom of the mid–2000s.

"We are not expecting to see a housing market that could be described as strong. But despite the downward revisions to sales, a modest recovery may be under way," said Paul Dales, an economist at Capital Economics. Prices could stop falling next year, he said, but it will take until 2014 for markets to show sustained gains.

The Realtors' report showed that housing inventory declined to 2.58 million in November, down 18.1% from one year ago to the lowest level since the spring of 2005.

Low inventory is normally a sign of health for housing markets because reduced competition can result in higher prices. But real–estate agents say markets are stalled now because sellers aren't willing to reduce prices further and are keeping their homes off the market rather than settling with buyers seeking deep discounts.

Buyers, meanwhile, remain frustrated by inventory that they say is unattractive or overpriced. A shortage of inventory has "caused buyers to go away," said Ron Leis, a real–estate agent in Sacramento, Calif. "It's our biggest issue right now. They lose interest because there just isn't anything to buy" that meets their requirements.

Andrena Crawford, a 68–year–old retired civil servant, has long wanted to sell her Kissimmee, Fla., property but won't accept the $100,000 or so she thinks it would fetch right now.

She and her husband bought the home, where they live during the winter, in 1994 for $106,000. During the boom, the property's value rose as high as $200,000, Ms. Crawford says. She hopes to get $160,000 for it and recently met with a real–estate agent to gauge the market. "He's advised us that if we're not in a hurry to hang on a bit," said Ms. Crawford, who spends part of the year in her native Scotland. "As long as I can cover myself (with renters), I'm happy to let it run."

The drop in inventory could be temporary because millions of homes are expected to go into foreclosure. Analysts at Barclays Capital estimate that 3.4 million mortgages are in some stage of foreclosure or have gone more than three months without a payment. Banks have been slow to repossess these homes after foreclosure–processing abuses surfaced last year, but the inventory ultimately could rise as banks begin to take back and list more of those properties.

The Realtors group typically revises home–sales data every 10 years because its estimates are benchmarked to sales figures from the decennial census survey. But earlier this year the NAR began contemplating a significant downward revision after real–estate groups pointed out potential flaws in the group's tally.

The Realtors' group doesn't count the number of sales registered every month. Instead, it produces estimates based on a broad sample of data reported by local multiple–listing services to calculate monthly changes in sales. It then makes estimates about other sales that aren't included by those groups, such as "for sale by owner" transactions, and pegs the monthly changes to the total sales reported in the census survey. Economists, investors and the real–estate industry use the NAR estimates to gauge the health of the nation's housing market.

The trade group's model unintentionally began over–counting sales as the housing downturn accelerated in 2007. Consolidation among the multiple–listing services meant they were counting a greater share of sales than was accounted for in the NAR's methodology. Also, the share of "for sale by owner" sales declined from a 16% market share in 2000 to 9% in 2010.

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Rhinebeck Real Estate Home Sales Revisions to Hurt

Wed, 21 Dec 2011 09:00:00 EST

Home – Sales Revisions to Hurt: More Distress in Market

Published December 21 2011
By Diana Olick CNBC Real Estate Reporter

Now we know that the recent housing crash was about 14 percent worse than previously thought. That is the conclusion of benchmark revisions by the National Association of Realtors, after they realized that their numbers were "drifting" from other industry calculations.

That drift was caused by a big shift away from For Sale By Owner (FSBO) sales to Realtor sales (which was a big factor in their methodology), an increase in the geographic size/range of many multiple listing services (MLS), and double counting due to Realtors listing properties in several different local MLS's.

So what does this change? I've already expounded on what it doesn't change, which is really anything happening today in the economy, current home sales and prices and already–accounted–for losses from the housing crash.

It does however, change perception and economic prediction as we go forward. The Commerce Department will have to revise the housing component of GDP lower, and, perhaps more importantly, we have to look at comparisons and the overall health of today's housing market differently.

First and foremost, distressed sales, which are foreclosures and short sales, mean a lot more now.

Shadow inventory (properties with seriously delinquent loans or properties already in foreclosure/repossessed), which CoreLogic just reported now stands at 1.6 million properties in October, are suddenly a far greater share of the overall market, since normal for–sale inventory dropped by 14 percent with the revisions.

This is important because loan defaults and foreclosures in total and as a percentage of total inventory and sales volume are key metrics in forecasting home sales and pricing.

"This has implications, especially given the late stage default and ready foreclosure pipelines have grown enormously...shadow inventory just got much larger. Time to absorb got much longer. The NAR revisions make it so we have to increase our upper bounds in distressed–to–organic sales metrics, which means a higher likelihood of greater house price depreciation," notes mortgage analyst Mark Hanson. "Already in key regions and states around the nation distressed sales are the market. This will make it so many more markets around the country become mostly distressed markets in which distressed volume outpaces organic."

Home buyers, sellers, and especially builders base important decisions on these distress factors in today's market, and now their base of comparison is suddenly way off.

Granted, many of these same people are looking and comparing very locally and should know better than to rely on aggregate national data, but still it does have implications on overall consumer sentiment, which translates into buying and selling.

As we've already noted on this page, foreclosures are increasing, as the backlog from the so–called "robo–signing" paperwork scandal makes its way through final processing.

That increase in inventory will now be compared against a smaller pool of organic inventory, and that may, in turn, affect overall home prices more than we anticipated. Investors will likely take up much of that slack, and if the government and private sector finally finish plans in the works to entice more investors, some of that effect could be largely mitigated.

So no, the revisions don't change sales on the ground today, but it remains to be seen how the perception of a deeper housing crash will affect home sales, prices and distress in the future.

For complete article –Click

Rhinebeck Real Estate Home Sales Could Be Revised Down

Tue, 20 Dec 2011 09:00:00 EST

Beware of the Big Bad Home Sales Revisions

Published December 20 2011
By Diana Olick CNBC Real Estate Reporter

We already know the housing crash was bad, perhaps the worst in history; tomorrow we will learn that it's worse than we thought.

The National Association of Realtors, for a number of reasons I won't get into because they've been widely reported, overcounted home sales during part of the last decade and has spent the better part of this past year figuring out just how badly they did that.

They consulted with economists at the Federal Reserve [cnbc explains] , Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, the Department of Housing and Urban Development, the mortgage bankers, the home builders, as well as umpteen other housing specialists, and tomorrow they will release their results.

Expectations are that home sales could be revised down anywhere from 10 percent to 20 percent. The Realtors' chief economist said the revision would be, "meaningful."

The revisions will likely not change the fact that last year saw the fewest homes sold on record. They will not change estimates of home prices, nor the home price drop since the 2006 peak, nor will they change inventories of unsold homes in month's supply (how long it takes to sell that many homes) although absolute inventories will be revised lower. They will not affect monthly or annual percentage changes in sales recently.

The revisions will also have nothing to do with how many newly built homes sold, nor will they say anything about the health of the nation's homebuilders.

Far more importantly, the revisions will have nothing to do with how many borrowers are behind on their mortgage payments or in the process of foreclosure, which is 6.26 million, according to numbers just released from Lender Processing Services.

The Realtors' revisions will not change the losses at banks, losses to investors, and losses to the now government–owned mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, nor to the Federal Housing Administration.

The Realtors' revisions will change perception; they may even change consumer sentiment. Headlines will scream Wednesday morning, and reporters like me will jump in with the "breaking news" that far fewer existing homes sold over the past four years than previously thought.

The crash will look bigger, as the Realtors are only revising numbers starting in 2007, because "they did a side–by–side comparison of the calculations and the drift began only in 2007," says an NAR spokesman. "So there was no need to revise earlier data. It appears that roughly half of the revisions come from the drop in FSBO's [For Sale By Owner]."

Let me repeat what I just wrote: The crash will look bigger. Will that change anything in the economy today? Will it affect the housing market going forward? Will it hamper the fledgling recovery (which I'm not 100 percent sure is really taking hold)?

My guess is no, but the revisions — and the hue and cry surrounding them — will hurt consumer confidence, which was beginning to come around ever so slightly.

The homebuilders reported an increase in buyer traffic and buyer inquiries in December, and said gains in the past months are "an indication that pockets of recovery are slowly starting to emerge in scattered housing markets." These new numbers will hurt that new–found confidence, not because of anything real on the ground, but because of the perception of just how far we fell.

It is commendable that the Realtors are correcting their miscalculations, but equally distressing that just as our outlook for the future was brightening ever so slightly, and homebuying demand was beginning to awaken, we have to be reminded of a very dark past, darker than we knew.

There are still considerable headwinds facing housing's recovery, not the least of which are foreclosures, and potential buyers have to factor that into their decision making. They should not, however, be spooked by nasty new numbers that really just put an exclamation point on what we already knew … that housing went from an unprecedented boom to an unprecedented bust and took down our economy with it.

For complete article –Click

Rhinebeck Real Estate Home Buyers and Lending

Tue, 13 Dec 2011 09:00:00 EST

Home Bargains Abound
But Willing Lenders Are Rare Breed

Published Tuesday, 13 December 2011
By ANNAMARIA ANDRIOTIS WSJ Real Estate Reporter

Faced with finicky lenders, would–be home buyers are increasingly turning to Dad, Grandma or rich Uncle Barton—even perfect strangers they met online. While these solutions are understandable, given the abundant bargains on the market, they also present significant risks.

This year, one–third of first–time home buyers received a cash gift or a loan for a down payment from family or friends, according to the National Association of Realtors. That is up from a historical average of 27%.

Meanwhile, so–called peer–to–peer lending sites Prosper and Lending Club say demand for home–related financing is on the rise. And Weemba, a social–networking site, launched a platform in September to connect lenders directly with prospective home buyers and other borrowers.

Driving the demand, say financial advisers, is that despite rock–bottom mortgage rates around 4%, traditional lenders remain reluctant to provide mortgages to anyone with less than stellar credit. And in certain markets lenders are requiring down payments of more than 20% of the home's purchase price.

Scott Nguyen, a human–resources analyst, was denied a mortgage by several banks before getting a $15,000 loan from his mother and sister to use as a down payment on a home in Costa Mesa, Calif. Mr. Nguyen says he has agreed to pay off the loan on a monthly basis over three years, and will end up paying $3,000 in interest.

"Without my mom and my sister's help, I don't think I would have been able to buy the house that I did," he says.

In so–called intrafamily loans, the borrower often saves on interest since parents are likely to charge less than the banks, says Michael Garry, a fee–only financial planner in Newtown, Pa. And parent lenders can earn a higher return from their child's interest payments than they would on a certificate of deposit or money–market fund. Under federal law, on a loan of more than nine years, parents in most cases must charge at least roughly 2.8%.

Of course, intrafamily loans can upset the family dynamic.

Jonathan Bergman, a certified financial planner at Palisades Hudson Financial Group in Scarsdale, N.Y., recommends that parents be clear about how repayment will work. In some cases, it may even make sense to hold back on future monetary gifts or inheritance if it isn't repaid. "The power of the parents' purse is strong," he says.

Consumers who want to look beyond the family can apply at online sites like Lending Club and Prosper. If approved for a loan after a screening by the companies, applicants may then receive money from investors.

At Miami–based Weemba, some 3,000 registered users have started posting loan proposals during the past couple months. Thirty companies including banks and credit unions—up from just a dozen in September—review the applicants and directly contact those they are interested in.

However, these alternative routes to financing can be expensive for borrowers. Rates at Lending Club run from around 7% to 28%, and at Prosper from roughly 7% to 35%. The companies say these rates, which are fixed, are higher than traditional mortgage rates in part because their loans are unsecured.

For complete article –Click

Harvey Brown,ABR, Principal Broker

Rhinebeck, New York, 12572
845-876-3502 or 212-228-6705
hbrown@dirtroadrealty.com

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Rhinebeck Real Estate News Real Estate Web Sites Assessing Home Prices

Tue, 13 Dec 2011 09:00:00 EST

How to Figure the Fuzzy Math of Internet Home Values

Published November 13, 2011
By ALYSSA ABKOWITZ WSJ Real Estate Reporter

Jason Gonsalves worked hard to turn his 6,500–square–foot stucco–and–stone home in the suburbs of Sacramento into the ultimate grown–up party pad, complete with game room, custom wine cellar and an infinity–edge pool overlooking Folsom Lake. When interest rates fell recently, Mr. Gonsalves, who runs a lobbying firm, looked into refinancing his $750,000 mortgage. That's when he got startling news—the home had dropped more than $200,000 in value while he was renovating.

Or at least, that's what one real–estate website told him. Another valued the house at only $640,500. And these online estimates left him all the more confused when a real–life appraiser, assessing the house for the refinancing loan, pinned its value at $1.5 million. "I have no idea how those numbers could be so different," Mr. Gonsalves says.

Right or wrong, they're the numbers millions of consumers are clamoring for. After years of real–estate pros holding all the informational cards in the home–sale game, Web–driven companies like Zillow, Homes.com and Realtor.com are reshuffling the deck, giving home shoppers and owners estimates of what almost any home is worth. People have flocked to the data in startling numbers: Together, four of the biggest sites that offer home–value estimates get 100 million visits a month, with web surfers using them to determine what to ask or bid for a home, or whether to refinance.

Zillow, Trulia and other websites post estimates of home values. But as Alyssa Abkowitz explains on Lunch Break, these popular sites can be –– by their own admission –– wildly inaccurate.

But for figures that can carry such weight, critics say, the estimates can be far rougher than most people realize. Valuations that are 20% or even 50% higher or lower than a property's eventual sale price are not uncommon, as the sites themselves acknowledge. The estimates frequently change, too—sometimes by hundreds of thousands of dollars—as sites plug new data into their algorithms.

What the Sites Get Right and Wrong

All of the competitors make it clear their numbers are guesstimates, not gospel. "A Trulia estimate is just that—an estimate," says a disclaimer on that site's new home–value tool. Zillow goes a step further, publishing precise numbers about how imprecise its estimates can be. And every major site urges home–price hunters to consult appraisers or real–estate agents to refine their results.

But despite the disclaimers, homeowners and real–estate agents say, many Web surfers put enough faith in the estimates to sway the way they shop and sell.

After Frank and Sue Parks put their manor–style house in Louisville, Ky., on the market, they watched as Zillow put a $331,000 value on the dwelling in May; by July it had climbed to $1.5 million. (Zillow says the lower estimate reflected errors in its statistical model.) The couple got potential buyer referrals from the site, but they fended off a stream of lowball offers before they sold this fall. Mrs. Parks says the estimate roller coaster "really affected our ability to move the place."

Determining a home's value has traditionally been the job of an appraiser, who gathers data on recently sold homes and compares them with the "subject property" to arrive at an estimate.

In the late 1980s, economists started developing automated valuation models, or AVMs, computer models that could analyze data about comparable sales, square footage, number of bedrooms and the like, in a matter of seconds. For years, these tools were mostly reserved for in–house analysts at lending banks.

It wasn't until 2006 that Zillow took them to the masses, with its Zestimates, which now offer values for more than 100 million homes based on the company's own algorithms. "Humans don't make these decisions," says Stan Humphries, chief economist at Zillow.

Numbers like these have become weapons in the arsenal of consumers like Simms Jenkins, an Atlanta marketing executive, who has recently relied on online estimates to help him both buy and sell homes. "I can't imagine 25 years ago, when people would just go out and spend their entire Saturday looking at homes," he says. "You don't have to do that now."

But appraisers and real–estate consultants say the online models can veer off target with alarming frequency. Most data for the models come from two sources: records from tax assessors and listing data for recent sales. Collection is a challenge, however, because not every county tracks properties the same way—some calculate home size by number of bedrooms, others by overall square footage. And automated models aren't designed to account for the unique construction details that often make or break a deal, or for intangible factors like a neighborhood's gentrification. "You cannot use a computer model in certain areas and expect the value to come out right," says John May, the former assessor of Jefferson County, Ky., which includes the state's largest city, Louisville.

For all these reasons, models that banks use often add a "confidence score" to their estimates. Consumer–oriented sites, meanwhile, rely on disclaimers, some of which are eye–opening. Zillow surfers who read the "About Zestimates" page find out that the site's overall error rate—the amount its estimates vary from a homes' actual value—is 8.5%, and that about one–fourth of the estimates are at least 20% off the eventual sale price. In some places, the numbers are far more dramatic: In Hamilton County, Ohio, which includes Cincinnati, it's 82%. The sites argue that, over time, edits and corrections will help them perfect their numbers—with many fixes coming from their customers.

On Homes.com, anyone who knows a homeowner's surname and the year the home was last purchased, can edit the details of a property listing in ways that can eventually change the estimated value.

Zillow has accepted revisions on 25 million homes—perhaps the strongest testament to how seriously consumers take its estimates. Today, the site says its figures are accurate enough to give consumers a good sense of any home's value. In the meantime, says Mr. Humphries, its economist, "We're always tweaking the algorithm or building a new one."

For complete article –Click

Rhinebeck Real Estate Home and Taxes

Mon, 12 Dec 2011 09:00:00 EST

Home Buyers Could Pay for Payroll Tax Cut

Published Monday, 12 December 2011
By Diana Olick CNBC Real Estate Reporter

At face value, it seems like an easy, albeit creative way to pay for the extension of the payroll tax cut. Raise the fees that banks pay mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to guarantee home loans. These are called "guarantee fees," and are supposed to cover mortgage defaults in a normal housing market. (I say this because obviously in today's foreclosure–ridden landscape they don't even come close, which is why the two are currently in debt to U.S. taxpayers for a collective $152.7 billion).

But back to the original premise: Senate Democrats and House Republicans like the idea, which under the Senate proposal would raise $38.1 billion, according to Pennsylvania Senator Bob Casey. Senate and House versions differ on how much the fees would be raised, but both proposals are additions of less than one percent of the loan.

"This is one of those ideas that manages to attract support from the left and the right because on the right they love the idea of raising the cost of using Fannie and Freddie, because that could bring the private sector back to the mortgage market. On the left, it's seen as a very convenient and not very painful way to extend a tax cut that millions of consumers enjoy," notes Jaret Seiberg of Guggenheim Partners.

But make no mistake, the banks will pass this increased fee on to borrowers in the form of higher interest rates on mortgages. In essence, it's a conduit for the home buyer to pay the bank to pay Fannie and Freddie to pay the Treasury to pay for the tax credit. Only in Washington…

The housing industry hates it, and so the Mortgage Bankers, National Association of Realtors and National Association of Home Builders penned a coalition letter to Speaker of the House, John Boehner:

"We strongly believe that fees charged by the Enterprises [Fannie/Freddie] to manage risk and enhance capital should not be diverted for purposes unrelated to the safety and soundness of the housing finance system,"

Frankly, they're worried that this is a surtax on housing and, even worse, a slippery slope.

"The danger is that we are establishing a precedent that we are going to tax the home purchase transaction to fund things that have nothing to do with housing, and if that takes off, any time government needs money this will be an easy place to turn," adds Seiberg.

Seiberg doesn't believe the higher fees would make potential home buyers turn away from getting a Fannie or Freddie mortgage, and/or push them to the already bloated Federal Housing Administration (FHA). The FHA charges higher insurance premiums, but others believe that it could have that effect.

"With no appetite for private investment in mortgages, this action will simply drive more business to FHA, at a time when everyone agrees that the FHA should be shrinking its market share, not increasing it," wrote MBA President and CEO David Stevens in a statement today.

The measure did not pass a vote last week but is expected to survive this week, as it will be attached to a "continuing resolution" to keep funding the government. The industry will likely lose this one because the tax break is simply far more politically popular than the fear of future meddling in mortgages.

For complete article –Click

Harvey Brown,ABR, Principal Broker

Rhinebeck, New York, 12572
845-876-3502 or 212-228-6705
hbrown@dirtroadrealty.com

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Rhinebeck Potential SCAM - Advertising Solicitation

Thu, 08 Dec 2011 09:00:00 EST

Below is from the Rhinebeck Central School District:

"Community members and businesses should be reminded that it is not the practice of the Rhinebeck Central School District to employ the services of any company for the purpose of soliciting money from individuals or local businesses to support our programs or our students, or to otherwise authorize them to do so. Please be aware that this unethical practice has occurred in our area sporadically in past years, and as a new school year is ready to commence, the community is urged to be cautious if approached.
Community members and local businesses that are contacted by any company claiming an affiliation with the Rhinebeck Central School District, either soliciting a donation or asking you to purchase items with your business’ advertising or place your business’ advertising on such items, such as mugs, water bottles, book covers, sports schedule posters or other items, please contact the office of the Superintendent of Schools before writing a check or placing an order.
The Rhinebeck Central School District appreciates the overwhelming support provided by the individuals and businesses in our community over the years. We do not want any business to take advantage of the Rhinebeck community’s generosity and good will.
If you have any questions pertaining to this information, please don’t hesitate to contact Joseph L. Phelan, Superintendent of Schools, at 845/871-5520."

Rhinebeck Real Estate Are There Two Rhinebeck Housing Markets ?

Tue, 06 Dec 2011 09:00:00 EST

Are There Really Two Housing Markets?

Published December 6, 2011
By Diana Olick CNBC Real Estate Reporter

There were a few positive indicators in September that gave some analysts fodder for optimism, but the readings on prices are far less rosy, and alas far more complicated.

As we head toward the end of the year, for some reason the drumbeat to claim that housing has bottomed is growing louder.

There were a few positive indicators in September, rising housing starts and rising home sales, that gave some analysts fodder for optimism, but the readings on prices are far less rosy, and alas far more complicated.

Two reports out today show home prices are falling again after seeing some gains in the Spring and Summer. Lender Processing Services says they're down 3.7 percent annually in September, erasing the gains of the Spring, and they say all of the 13,500 zip codes it tracks are in the negative.

Meanwhile CoreLogic says prices fell 3.9 percent in October, but when you take out foreclosures and short sales (the latter when the home is sold for less than the value of the mortgage), home prices are down just 0.5 percent annually. The vaunted S&P/Case–Shiller home price index was down 3.9 percent in September, and that's a three month running average including distressed and non–distressed property sales.

So why are analysts now predicting a house price recovery?

Goldman Sachs [GS 87.37 –2.73 (–3.03%) ] put out a report late last week predicting that S&P/Case–Shiller would drop 2.5 percent further and then bottom, probably in the summer of 2012. This when the S&P/Case–Shiller folks themselves predict a 3.5 percent drop and a bottom later in 2012. The Goldman theory is based on some kind of "equilibrium" price model for each market. They also claim that homes no longer appear "expensive." when you look at price/rent ratios, and that historical models suggest that income and population, as always, will drive improved demand.

Then this week analysts at Barclays Capital honed in on the difference in price drops between distressed and non–distressed properties. They claim the non–distressed market is stabilizing, so that must mean that a foreclosure or short sale is, "increasingly being seen as a poor substitute for a non–distressed home," according to analyst Stephen Kim. He claims the disparity will in fact widen over time.

So are we just supposed to ignore the distressed market? What about the fact that in some cities more than half of the properties selling are distressed? And what about the fact that there are more distressed properties coming to market, as the banks ramp up the long–stalled foreclosure process? And how about appraisers using distressed properties as comps to non–distressed properties?

I realize many of you think I'm too bearish on housing's recovery, but trust me, nobody's more sick of reporting the same lousy numbers than I am. The problem is that while sales are improving slightly, and consumer sentiment may be settling a bit, the mess left to clean up from the past is still weighing heavily on the future. The economy may be improving slightly, buyers may be considering getting back in, but we are barely half way through the overhang of distress, and any change in the economy could set us back even further.

I am in no way claiming that housing is in for a quadruple dip nor that we are going to see more big losses. Frankly I think we're going to be flat in housing for a long time, which is not a very interesting story to tell from a reporter's perspective. While there may be two types of properties (distressed and non–distressed), there is just one housing market, and you cannot negate one to inflate or deflate the other.

For complete article –Click

Rhinebeck Real Estate Homes Sold in Rhinebeck NY in November 2011

Mon, 05 Dec 2011 09:00:00 EST

I would like to briefly explain the MHMLS.

The real estate brokers in the MHMLS have agreed to share their listings– information on properties features. All the homes on the MHMLS are pooled together in one listing.

4 Rhinebeck Homes Sold
During the Month of November 2011

Orginal Listed Price	Sale Price	Percent Price Reduction	Listing Month & Year
$259,900	$215,000	17%	June 2011
$349,000	$289,500	17%	May 2011
$429,000	$358,000	17%	Apri 2009
$445,900	$408,500	08%	May 2011

Homes sold in Rhinebeck during the month of November told a story that is homes above $500,000 are being hard hit in this Rhinebeck real estate market. Dana Olick of CNBC wrote
Higher-End Housing Hits a Wall

Because when I say "high–end" I'm not talking multi–million dollar homes, I'm talking about homes over $500,000, which are move–up homes. If there's no move–up market, then there can be no real recovery because all the action is taking place in the distressed market, which then artificially pulls down the national home price numbers and scares the rest of the market away.

No move-up market also means those in higher priced homes who need to sell can't, and that could push up delinquencies on jumbo and even higher–priced conforming loans. Think of all the baby boomers who need to get out of big suburban family homes they can no longer afford. Suffice it to say, we need all segments of the housing market pushing forward in order to get the full market back to health.

Homes sold in Rhinebeck real estate market in the month of November unfortunately reflect this story: Home Sales Split By Price.Home sales in the $0–100,000 range were up a hefty 24 percent from a year ago, part of that due to last year's depressed numbers following the expiration of the home buyer tax credit, but much of it due to the fact that one third of the market is now foreclosures and short sales, and that's generally the range for those properties. Sales were also up 13 percent in the $100–250,000 range, but after that the party quiets down considerably. Sales were up just over one percent in the $250–500,000 range, and down 9 percent above that.

It should be noted that of the 15 homes sold in Rhinebeck and Red Hook in the month of November only 1 home sold over $500,000. This Red Hook Home was listed for $2,850,000 and sold for $1,800,000,a 37% reduction.

Harvey Brown,ABR, Principal Broker

Rhinebeck, New York, 12572
845-876-3502 or 212-228-6705
hbrown@dirtroadrealty.com

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Sinterklaas in Rhinebeck

Sat, 03 Dec 2011 09:00:00 EST

Sinterklaas in Rhinebeck

December 4, 2011

Sinterklaas Calendar of Events

Many people asked: what is this celebration that happens on early in December? Why have a special interest and pride in this time of year?

The answer: we are honoring our Dutch heritage by recreating customs that the settlers from Holland brought to the Hudson Valley. The Dutch people who came to Rhinebeck over 300 years ago brought a celebration with them that was already a deeply rooted part of their traditions.

The ritual was simple enough. Each year on December 6 (that’s the Dutch tradition, ours in the first Saturday in December), a town resident dressed up as Sinterklaas (that is, elegantly garbed in a bishop’s tall hat, red cape, shiny ring, and jeweled staff). Mounted on a white steed, this Sinterklaas would ride through town knocking on doors late at night. He would be accompanied by his long-time sidekick, the Grumpus. Also known as Black Peter, the Grumpus — a wild looking half-man, half-beast character — rattled chains and threatened to steal away the naughtiest children in his big black bag. And for those “less bad” he had switches for exacting lesser punishments! And for the good children — Sinterklaas and the Grumpus would deliver a bag of goodies.

Over the years, as towns developed and houses grew closer together, Sinterklaas’ ride turned into a Parade that still happens in Holland to this day, and is the most popular of all Dutch holidays.

Who was this Sinterklaas?

At the start, Sinterklaas was a real person. He was born in the 4th century in Myra, Asia Minor, where he became a bishop as a grown man. Little else is known about him—except that he loved children.

A story is told about Sinterklaas to illustrate this point. It is said that three little boys dined at a restaurant and, after eating their fill, informed the innkeeper that they could not pay their bill. To exact payment, the innkeeper chopped them up into little bits and cooked them in a stew.

Nicholas heard about the awful deed and came to the inn to find the boys boiling away in the pot. He told the innkeeper that if he, Nicholas, could find one little piece of each boy that was good, he would perform a miracle and bring them him back to life. Now, what child does not have at least one little piece of good in him? And, so Sinterklaas returned the boys to life and took them into his care.

There is also the story of the three poor sisters. They were the beautiful daughters of a poor peasant. The first was very blonde, the second had raven black hair, and the third wore auburn tresses. When they grew up they fell in love with three pleasant young men. But the sisters could not get married because they had no dowry. That made them very sad. One night, as Sinterklaas was out riding, he looked through a window and saw three lovely, but sad sisters. And he heard why they could not marry the young men of their choice. He went back to his palace and gave the Grumpus three little bags. In each were a hundred golden ducats. He asked the Grumpus to drop the little bags into the girls' shoes, and an hour later they were rich. They married the three nice young men and lived happily ever after! To this day children leave a carrot in their shoes hoping to attract Sinterklaas' attention and reward. Since then Sinterklaas (or St. Nicholas as he is also known) has become known as the patron saint of unwed maidens.

How this kindly 4th century bishop made his way from Asia Minor through Italy, Spain and all of Northern Europe by the 11th century where he is still honored today is hard to say, but by that time he become the patron saint not only of children and unwed maidens, but of sailors and the City of Amsterdam as well.

Association with Amsterdam goes back to the time of the Inquisition, which had spread to Holland in the Middle Ages. Rumor had it that there was a Nicholas who was Bishop of the Cathedral in Amsterdam. When the swarthy Spaniards came from Spain to trade with the Dutch, they gave passage to adults and children alike whose lives were threatened by the Inquisition against the Jews in Spain.

Sinterklaas Today in Holland

There is not a single family in Holland that does not in some way or another honor the old "Bishop" and his servant the Grumpus with a party, a small get-together or by going to somebody's else's house to celebrate. There may be many presents, or just a few, tables laden with traditional candles and cookies, or just a pot of hot chocolate. The house may be teeming with children, or with perhaps just a few grown-ups around the dining room table—but the Sinterklaas spirit is everywhere—one simply can't miss it. It is far and away the nicest, most wonderful and exciting festivity in the land!

In Amsterdam, on December 5th a ship carrying Sinterklaas arrives by boat from Spain where he spends the rest of the year. He is greeted by a whole group of Grumpuses. A million people come out to see his arrival and watch his triumphant parade through the streets of the city. The whole rest of the country watches on TV. There are special songs and pastries made for his arrival. In Rhinebeck, this year Sinterklaas will arrive at the Rhinecliff Dock at 4 pm on November 28th and ride up the hill to the Rhinecliff Hotel where children will be treated to a Dragon Play, music, and the Grumpus Dance. He will ride through Rhinebeck on the evenings of December 1st, 2nd and 3rd. And finally, he'll be seen in the Children's Starlight Parade on December 5th.

St. Nicholas, Sinterklaas, and Santa Claus in the Hudson Valley

When the early Dutch settlers came to America, they naturally brought with them their venerated old bishop. St. Nicholas and their favorite holiday, Sinterklaas. Indeed, after landing in the New World, the Dutch explorers, led by Henry Hudson, built their first church on the island of Manhattan in 1642, dedicating it to Sinterklaas. When the British took control of New Amsterdam in 1664, they adopted the Dutch recognition of Sinterklaas and merged it with their own observance of the Winter Solstice, Father Christmas—the merry, roly-poly, Falstaffian figure in high boots. Eventually, these two old gentlemen commemorated in December, merged into one.

Over the next few generations, Sinterklaas found his way into American literature. In 1809, writer Washington Irving (a man who lived not far from Rhinebeck) created a jolly Sinterklaas for his popular Knickerbocker Tales. Then in 1822, an Episcopal priest named Clement Moore (who also lived near to Rhinebeck) wrote a lighthearted poem called "A Visit from St. Nicholas" which featured a jolly old elf, his descent down a chimney on Christmas Eve, and a sleigh drawn by eight tiny reindeer (Odin's flying horse!) The Father Christmas image stuck, but he acquired a Dutch name—Santa Claus—a direct derivation from Sinterklaas.

America, a country of invention and opportunity, a land where everyone could write their own life's story, added the latest chapter to a tale that had begun in ancient times with Odin, a mythical figure embodying the archetype of The Good King, who rode through the night in the land of the reindeer doing good deeds for children.

So, now, we in Rhinebeck will write our own version of this myth and enact it in our own way for our own time as we move away from the commercial Santa and back to the underlying beliefs that began the legend—The Good King, the Noble Soul, the one who brings light out of darkness, befriends the children and creatures, and inspires our souls.

From time immemorial, "Sinterklaas!" has been a touchstone—one by which we can come together in community, putting aside that which divides, and allowing us to focus on what brings us together—our humanity, our love for children, our hopes for the future.

This year, the 400th Anniversary of Henry Hudson's discovery of the River that now bears his name, will be commemorated by Rhinebeck as part of its Sinterklaas Celebration!

Making the Celebration Our Own

Today in Rhinebeck, we celebrate Sinterklaas in both traditional and new ways.

Good children, bad children.

This idea always comes up in celebrations around this time of year. Naughty or nice. Coal or presents. Judgment. Right along side of the Sinterklaas legend there is the even more ancient story of the Bel Snickle, the Grumpus, the Rupelz, Shab, the Krampucz. A sort of scary character—who comes out of the wood and who is in marked contrast with the kindly Sinterklaas, the Good King. A leftover from a harsher time. And even though he is played by someone from the neighborhood, and even though he does not REALLY cart children away in his black bag or punish them with his birch rod that he carries, he is still there- a reminder that if you are not good, well…punishment will follow. In Rhinebeck, we turn that tradition upside down by turning a negative symbol into an empowering one.

What is the meaning of the Crowns and Branches that are made by and carried by the Children in the Parade? Since St. Nicholas loved children so much, it makes sense on his name day, that children—who at all other times of the year the least powerful people in the society—are turned into the most powerful for just one day. Children are crowned kings and queens!

The birch rod—the indispensable instrument of medieval education—in Rhinebeck is transformed by the power imagination and art into a symbol of empowerment and love. The birch rod becomes the Branch—the Royal Scepter—a symbol of creative power in the hands of today’s children.

And so, on this day in Rhinebeck children are raised up from being those least powerful to the most powerful for one glorious day! The rods are turned to Royal Scepters and the Children are crowned royalty for the day! On December 5th, there will be a bustling and beautiful workshop from 12:00–4:00 pm for children to create their Crowns and Branches at the Dutch Reformed Church. Hundreds of beautiful branches will be laid out alongside lots of beautiful glittery and fanciful materials—jewels, ribbons, glitter, lace, streamers, wonderfilm -- with which the children can create their Royal garb! At the end of the day each child has something to carry in the Parade and to take home with them. Each child will be asked to tie 3 WISHES in their branch—one for their family, for their community and for the World. Be sure to see the Wish Lady!

What are The STARS that Every Family Will Carry

Rhinebeck Real Estate Homeownership

Sat, 26 Nov 2011 09:00:00 EST

Stronger Lure for Prospective Home Buyers

Published November 26, 2011
By NICK TIMIRAOS WSJ Real Estate Reporter

Owning Continues to Become More Affordable Relative to Renting, but Several Obstacles Prevent Many From Biting

Home prices and mortgage rates have fallen so far that the monthly cost of owning a home is more affordable than at any point in the past 15 years and is less expensive than renting in a growing number of cities.

The Wall Street Journal's third–quarter survey of housing–market conditions in 28 of the nation's largest metropolitan areas found that home values declined in all but five markets compared with the second quarter, according to data from Zillow Inc. Meanwhile, rent levels have risen briskly across the country and mortgage rates, hovering around 4%, are the lowest in six decades.

As a result, monthly mortgage payments on the median priced home—including taxes and insurance—are lower than the average rent levels in 12 metro areas, according to data compiled for The Wall Street Journal by Marcus & Millichap, a real–estate brokerage that tracked 27 metro areas. It remains less expensive to rent than to buy in 15 cities. But affordability hasn't done much to lift the sagging housing sector because many would–be buyers are unwilling to purchase a home or unable to qualify for a mortgage.

"It's one of the most striking developments of the housing downturn," said Paul Dales, an economist at Capital Economics. "The initial building blocks for a recovery are in place, but the legacy of the recession is really preventing households from taking advantage."

In Atlanta, which had the most favorable values for owning versus renting, the monthly payment on the average home was $539 assuming a 20% down payment during the third quarter. By contrast, the average asking rent stood at $840, according to the Marcus & Millichap data.

But real estate agents and economists say the trend hasn't boosted demand. That is because affordability alone hasn't been enough to overcome the obstacles in the way of a housing recovery. Some homeowners who would like to move up to larger properties are stuck because they can't sell their homes.

Also, while the monthly carrying costs on a mortgage are lower than average rents in some cities, home ownership carries other costs—including taxes, insurance, homeowner association dues and maintenance—which may dissuade some potential owners.

Other would–be buyers can't qualify for mortgages because lending conditions are tight or because they don't have enough equity in their current homes to use as a down payments. "The reality of coming up with the down payment and the loan–qualification standards makes things much different than the raw numbers suggest," says Hessam Nadji, managing director of Marcus & Millichap. And even those who may qualify remain skittish about buying property in a market where prices could fall amid foreclosures and weak job growth.

Ryan Young illustrates the point. He is under contract to buy a three–bedroom home in Washington Grove, Md., that will have monthly mortgage, tax, and insurance costs for around $150 less than the $1,900 he is paying to rent a slightly smaller house in Bethesda, Md. He qualified for a 30–year mortgage with a 3.95% fixed rate. Still, Mr. Young says he is cautious about owning his first home with the prospect of future price declines. "Buying a house is not a good financial decision, per se, but we needed a bigger place," said the 35–year–old scientist, "and we don't want to move every couple of years into a new rental."

Home ownership is also looking more affordable because after several years of declines, apartment rents will rise by around 4% this year, says Mr. Nadji. He says rents are poised "to pick up even more momentum across the country next year."

Even cities where it is still cheaper to rent than own have seen big boosts in affordability. In San Diego, the monthly cost of owning a home has averaged around 83% more than renting over the past two decades. During the third quarter, owning was 22% more expensive than renting, according to John Burns Real Estate Consulting.

A new development in Canonsburg, Pa. The inventory of homes on the market has fallen from levels seen a year ago, as prices and mortgage rates continued to decline.

Mortgage rates are a big reason why affordability continues to improve. In 1991, a $1,700 mortgage payment allowed a borrower to take out a $200,000 mortgage. Today, it gets that homeowner a $350,000 loan, a 77% increase in borrowing power, says Dan Green, a loan officer with Waterstone Mortgage, in Cincinnati. At the same time, low mortgage rates aren't spurring sales because few analysts expect rates to rise anytime soon. The Federal Reserve in August said it would keep rates at ultralow levels for two years. In a normal interest rate cycle, "when they go low, they don't stay for very long, and people jump in," said Mr. Dales. "This time, there is no urgency."

Affordability could continue to improve as prices slide even lower in coming months. Price declines are likely because the share of "distressed" sales, including bank–owned foreclosures, tend to rise in the winter, when traditional sales activity cools. Banks are often much quicker to cut prices to unload properties quickly, which means that the greater the share of "distressed" sales, the more prices tend to fall.

For complete article –Click

Dirt Road Realty News: Village of Rhinebeck Holds Tree Lighting

Fri, 25 Nov 2011 09:00:00 EST

Please join us this Sunday, November 27th for the annual Village Tree Lighting and Children's Parade. Festivities begin at 3:00 in the Rhinebeck Savings Bank parking lot with horse-drawn carriage rides by the Gentle Giants 4H. Joe Daily, 92.1 LITE FM will be our Master of Ceremonies and Astor Children's Foundation, Daytop, The Goat Club, Friends of the Whale Watch, the Rhinebeck Jewish Center, the Rhinebeck Rotary and Sinterklaas will all be hand. The Rhinebeck Choral Club will sing on the stage at 3:30 and this year The Little Creek Band will play at 4:30! Parade line-up on Mulberry Street at 5:00 and the tree lighting will be immediately following.

Williams Lumber is donating a pick-up truck so we can fill it up with non-perishable food donations. Paper goods and toiletry items are also welcome! Everything will go the Church of the Messiah and Reformed Church Food Pantries.

Special thanks to our sponsor, Rhinebeck Savings Bank, and to Battenfeld's Tree Farm, the Village of Rhinebeck Police and Fire Departments, the Rhinebeck Lions Club, Rhinebeck Grand Rentals, Eurotronix, and Northern Dutchess Paramedics, Willams Lumber, Burnett & White Funeral Home and of course, Santa & Mrs. Claus!

Remember, it is VERY important to SHOP LOCAL this holiday season! Small Business Saturday is tomorrow, 11/26 and many of our merchants are registered participants, which means you get money back when you spend money with them! Make time to visit our wonderful Rhinebeck merchants this year!

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